World Crisis: the second act on stage at MIP in Milan. The portfolio Thanks to this first contribution of Maria Grazia Blacks, with " economics and finance" the blog Negrini & Varetto opens a window on the main debates on economic and financial performance of Italian industrial system.
We aim to give a little "barometer" for the real economy and the problems of enterprises with particular emphasis on issues of major strategic impact, attractive in terms of communication strategies and marketing, compared with those sectors and geographical areas and operating of Agency client companies. Milan, June 24, 2010 - For more than twenty months of the financial earthquake - began with the failure of Lehman and the bailout by the U.S. government's AIG - a second crisis, different but no less dangerous generated this time by the sovereign debt of the States strikes on economic and financial system remains fragile and confirms that the figure of this first decade of the new millennium, as written by Philip Kotler, turbulence.
In this scenario what happens to the real economy and, in particular, what is happening to the Italian companies? He spoke June 23 the MIP, the School of Management of Politecnico di Milan, teachers and experts, including Umberto Bertelè, Stefano Preda, Gianluca Spina, Fabio Sdogati during the panel discussion on "World Crisis Act II: what scenarios for finance and the real economy."
The picture of the real economy has been traced by Gianluca Spina (pictured), director of the Politecnico di Milano.
system in 101 areas surveyed in Italy - roughly identifiable with traditional manufacturing districts - from May / June 2009 started out in general terms when compared to the bounce point of acute crisis. During that time, March 2010 vrs March 2009, more than half of Italian system areas (27%) showed a more marked positive growth (+ 10%), others (ie another 27%) increase but less than 10%, while the remaining 46% continues to lag.
growth is not uniform for each sector: for example in textiles and clothing if
Carpi a decrease of -28%, Rimini scored a growth of +20% and +5% with a Biella resists .
This trend does not seem to be affected by the geographical location, according to a type of North-South: An example is the area of \u200b\u200bfootwear in the face of a decline of 60% in Casarano (LE) show good performance in Lucca ( +39%) and Bari (+21%). Among the sectors
most promising seem to have a lot of unfulfilled potential as food to the area of \u200b\u200bParma (+32%) which is the locomotive through all'exploit cheese (+65%), to signal the progress of the wine sector (+8.4 %), however, this area continues to highlight difficulties in relationships with the demands of large retail chains.
There are manufacturing sectors and areas of vocation, which have much weight in Emilia Romagna and in the provinces of Modena and Reggio Emilia, recorded the worst performance: in particular
still difficulties for agricultural machinery (-30%) and for 'appliances (-20%). areas and sectors where the reduction of incentives state as part of policies aimed at containing the debt, have raised fears that the negative effects triggered by the crisis have not yet finished. A tow
turnovers exports, up 8.8% in the first quarter of 2010, which are directed mainly towards the countries of the European Union, the lack of our companies' ability to attack the emerging markets, exports to India For example, marks a paltry 0.6%. However, their emerging economies, China and India in the lead, remain at the top of the growth of gross domestic product for the current year and in terms of estimates for the coming years. In the past year forecast of GDP growth of +10% for China, of +8.3% for India and 1.5% for the European Union.
The growth rate of Chinese GDP expected for 2020 is +25%, an increase designed to pulverize the records of this last year: 13 million cars sold in 2009 in China, Chinese exports +48.5%
recorded in May 2010, more than 150 million Chinese who have become middle class, can aspire to buy Western goods. China's growth is not without shadows: on the one hand, the new disposable income has rapidly pushed property prices to the point that we speak of a real bubble in real estate, the relationship in terms of income between urban and rural (4 to 1) is very unbalanced and especially in the last year has seen an increase in labor costs (+70%) species in Guangdong, where there is a high concentration of engineering companies of Italian origin.
on this very scenario the problem of unbalanced sovereign debt and the choice of governments to reduce the mortgage debt makes a series on growth. E 'was Professor Fabio Sdogati to put theme in a provocative way: it is permissible to kill the weak recovery in place, exposing them to serious risk of stagnation or recession, to reduce (if all goes well) the growth of public debt? The Italian debt now stands at 119% of GDP, however, has remained in line (+13%) in the last three years, while in many countries have recorded strong increases in the period 2010/2007: +79% for Japan, which is touching 200% of GDP remains the highest in the world, 76% in the United Kingdom, + 48% in USA, 26% in Germany. However, only in European countries are being launched heavy corrective measures such as estimates for the U.S., which last year alone have increased the debt of 30%, provide for an overrun of 100% of the debt as early as next year.
on everything one thing is certain beyond the actual size of the Greek question, a country that weighs 2% of European GDP, the one that is under attack
today is the leadership and the European recovery .
Europe now seems at a crossroads and its ability to interpret the situation is not dogmatic, the choice of policy to overcome the dilemma between discipline and permissiveness.
(World Crisis, -1 -) For
Varetto & Negrini, Maria Grazia Blacks
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